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The State of US Last-Mile Delivery: 2026 Outlook

SC
Sarah Chen
Head of Product
Feb 4, 2026
10 min read

Volume is up, drivers are scarcer, fuel is volatile. Where US last-mile is heading in the next twelve months, and what operators should fix first.

Three forces will shape US last-mile in 2026: parcel volume continuing its post-pandemic plateau (+3% YoY), driver supply tightening as gig platforms compete for the same pool, and fuel prices oscillating with no clear floor.

What to fix first

The operators we expect to win 2026 are the ones who treat their planning system as the most important hire of the year — because in practical terms, it is.

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